Designers to Freelancers

English:

There’s been a big trend in the design industry lately, with people from all levels of design turning to freelancing. But the trend is even bigger than a lot of people imagine, and very quickly the industry balance is tipping towards freelancers.

Given the major elements at play, there’s no reason for this swing to stop, or even slow, in the next few decades — and pretty soon the majority of designers are going to be freelancers.

What leads to this conclusion, you ask? Here are three major reasons that most designers are going to be freelancers within the next 20 years:

The Costs of Freelancing are Plummeting

The trend of working at home, or working freelance, has been greatly bolstered by the lower costs of technology and communication.

it’s easier now to set up an effective freelance business for much less money — which means more people are going freelance

It’s possible nowadays to build an office at home, for only a few thousand dollars, and still have the technology to work and communicate around the globe. Technology costs are so much lower than they were years ago, and the result is that it’s easier now to set up an effective freelance business for much less money — which means more people are going freelance.

Think about Skype, for example. It alone has created the opportunity for thousands of freelancers and clients to do business across the globe. Because of Skype there many people who started a freelance business that would have been unable to otherwise.

The cost of setting up this global communication? Maybe $25 for a decent headset.

These new tech improvements, and constantly lowering costs, are creating what amounts to the perfect storm for starting a freelance business. All of the things we freelancers need to get started are not only improving, but are also becoming less expensive. In the coming decades this will draw many people into freelancing.

Corporations Are Hiring Freelancers Instead of Employees

As the global recession continues, more and more corporations are cutting costs — and laying off employees. These companies need to cut expenses, and maintaining an office with full-time employees has a lot of overhead.

Hiring freelancers, on the other hand, has no overhead at all. Freelancers can be hired extensively for a big project, and then not paid a thing when a company has no work. It’s the most scalable and on-demand solution for many situations, and a lot of companies are coming to the conclusion that freelancers are the least expensive option.

And when the world economy starts to recover, as is typical with post-recession economics, there is going to be a severe shortage in man-power due to the extensive lay-offs. Guess who fills in the gaps? Freelancers.

Typically these “stop-gap” freelancers convert back into normal employees after awhile, but given the lower costs of freelancing, the differences in the newer generations, and the increasing risk associated with large overhead, it could be a very long time before that swing happens.

Based on these trends, the number of freelancers will be exploding over the next several years.

Younger Generations Love Freelancing and Independence

The final trend at work here is the average age of the design community, which is somewhere in the 25-34 year range, and rapidly getting younger.

This age group no longer sees a job as secure. After watching (or experiencing first-hand) the number of lay-offs and firings that have happened in recent years, most younger people are more apt to rely on themselves than the promises of a big company. Add into the mix the promises of independence and potential prosperity, and it’s clear why this generation so distinctly favors freelancing over getting a job.

it’s clear to see that the design industry is in for a significant change over the next years and decades

With the nearly non-existent technological barriers to entry, the perfect catalyst in the global recession, and an age group that prefers freelancing to a job, it’s clear to see that the design industry is in for a significant change over the next years and decades.

In 20 years, it looks like the vast majority of designers will probably be freelancers.

Are You Prepared?

Are you prepared to deal with a significant number of new freelancers in the coming years? Have you created a business that can handle the incoming competition, and the new business when the economy improves?

Are you ready for more and more of your business to come from other freelancers?

Or, do you disagree with this prediction entirely? Do you think I made a mistake or missed something significant in the post?

Share your thoughts in the comments.

top image by Trekkyandy

About the author: Mason Hipp is an entrepreneur, marketing guru, and writer. He blogs about life and business at FreelanceFolder.com and is co-author of the Book The Unlimited Freelancer.

中文：

最近在设计界有一股大的趋势：各个层次和水平的设计师们纷纷开始转变成自由职业者。这股趋势之强超乎人们的想像，很快整个行业都被自由职业化了。

在考察了引起这种趋势的主要因素后，我们找不出能证明在未来几十年内此种趋势将停止或放缓的证据 – 很快，大部分设计师都将成为自由职业者。

你也许会问，是什么使你得出这个结论的？关于在未来的二十年内多数设计师都将成为自由职业者这个结论，我们有三大理由：

1. 成为自由职业一族的费用成本正在急剧下降

技术和通信成本的降低极大强化了在家工作或成为自由职业者这股趋势。如今，花个几千美元在家里构建一个办公场所是很简单的，

依靠技术的版主，在这个家庭办公室中你仍能和全球其他伙伴协同工作和交流。技术费用和比前几年比起来要低得多了，其结果就是，如今你只要花很少的钱，也能轻易地构建一个有效的自由职业项目平台 – 这就意味着更多人将选择从事自由职业。

让我们举个例子来说明下，比如Skype。光靠这小小一个软件就创造出了成千上万的自由职业者们与他们的客户在全球范围内开展合作的机会。正因为有了Skype，许多人开始经营以前可能无法开展的自由职业生意。

建立起全球联络管道的费用是多少呢？也许花25美元买个无线耳机就解决了。

这些新的科技进步以及成本的持续性降低，在很大程度上引起了这股自由职业的流行风潮。这些我们开始从事自由职业所需要的东西不仅品质提升了，而且变得更便宜了。在未来的十几年内这将吸引更多人成为自由职业者。

2. 企业更多地雇佣自由职业者而不是招聘员工

随着全球性经济萧条的持续，越来越多的企业开始节约开支 – 同时也裁减员工。那些需要节约成本，同时又要维持一个拥有全职员工的办公场所的公司，往往会有很多日常开支。

而另方面，雇佣自由职业者，则完全不需要日常开支。你能为一个大项目广泛地雇佣自由工作者，当公司没有项目时也不需要支付任何费用。这种雇佣方式是很多情况下最可调控、最有求必应的解决方案，许多公司也已经发现雇佣自由职业者是最经济的选项。

而当世界经济开始复苏时，作为衰退后经济的典型特征，因为前期大量裁员，在人力资源方面将出现严重短缺的情况。你猜谁会填补这些空缺？正是自由职业 者们。通常来说这些被临时征召来填补空缺职位的自由职业者们在一段时间后将会转变会正式员工，但由于单干的成本很低，年轻一代所具有的独特性格及公司必须 承担的日常支出爆增的风险，要等很长一段时期后这种转变才可能发生。

基于这些趋势，未来几年内自由职业者的人数将呈爆炸性增长。

3. 年轻一代喜欢自由职业和独立

最后一个趋势与设计从业人员的平均年龄有关，大多数设计人员的年龄介于25到34岁之间，而且有更加年轻化的趋势。

年轻一代不再把一份全职工作视为安全保障。在目睹（或亲身经历）这几年发生的裁员与解雇现象后，大多数年轻人倾向于依赖自己而不是去依靠大公司给出 的承诺。只要想想年轻人对上一代作出的独立承诺以及从事自由职业可能带来的潜在回报，也就不难理解为什么比起找一份全职工作，年轻一代明显更偏爱从事自由 职业了。

由于几乎不存在任何技术障碍，加上全球经济衰退的催化作用，以及偏好自由职业大于全职工作的年轻一代，很明显在未来一年几十几年内，设计行业将发生一场巨大的变化。

在二十年内，大多数设计师都可能转变成自由职业者了。

你准备好了么？

你准备好应对未来几年可能出现的大量新自由职业者了么？你建立好能应对即将到来的竞争的商业模式了么？建立起应对经济复苏的新商业模式了么？

你为越来越多来自其他自由职业者的业务作好准备了么？

或者你完全不同意我作出的预测？你认为我犯了一个错误或遗漏了某个重要事实？请留言告诉我吧。

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关于本文作者：Mason Hipp是一位创业者，营销专家以及作家。他在FreelanceFolder.com上开设有关于商业和生活的博客，同时他也是The Unlimited Freelancer这部书的共同撰稿人。

原文：http://freelancefolder.com/why-most-designers-will-be-freelancers-within-20-years/

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